BOTTOM LINE: The upcoming 2025/2026 rainfall season is expected to bring normal to above-normal precipitation with uneven distribution that calls for careful planning and preparedness.

Forecast Summary - 2025/2026 Season

The 2025/2026 rainfall seasonal forecast is summarized as follows:

a)

Seasonal Rainfall

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October to December 2025: Expect total rainfall amounts to be generally normal to above-normal in most areas of the country, with normal to below-normal rainfall likely over some parts of the northern areas (MAP A). But looking specifically for the month of November, the nationwide forecast predicts a possibility of normal to below-normal rainfall amounts.

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January to March 2026: Expect total rainfall amounts to be generally normal to above-normal. Despite this trend, localised pockets, particularly in parts of Mchinji, Dowa, Kasungu and Lilongwe are projected to receive normal to below-normal precipitation (MAP B). Crucially, the month of February is likely to be normal to below-normal nationwide.

b)

Temperature

For the upcoming 2025/2026 summer season, the nation is projected to experience an overall anomalously warm condition. This increase in temperature will be most pronounced across the country in December and February. Conversely, January is forecast to offer a brief respite, with most central regions likely to encounter cooler than normal conditions. These high temperatures will significantly increase the risk of heatwaves and moisture stress in some instances.

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