Analyses of prevailing conditions of the key factors that governs the distribution of rainfall in Malawi have led to the following summary in terms of expected rainfall for the 2025/2026 rainfall season;

• Cumulatively, normal to above-normal rainfall amounts in most areas of Malawi are anticipated. There is, however, notable varying distribution in time and space. For instance October to December (OND) subseason, holds a contrasting prediction for the northern region, where normal to below-normal rainfall is anticipated. The month of November also holds a normal to below-normal rainfall pattern across the country.
• January to March (JFM) subseason indicates also possibility of normal to above normal rainfall amounts over many places, a key exception lies within some central region districts. Dowa, Lilongwe, Mchinji and Kasungu, for instance, are currently showing increased chances of normal to below-normal during this period. February forecast indicates normal to below-normal throughout the country, echoing the patterns of November.
• In the case of temperatures, warmer conditions are predicted for most parts of the country.

Malawi may experience a slightly late onset of rains, which implies occurrence of false onsets in some areas. Normal to late cessation of rains is predicted; late March to early April in southern areas, and mid to end April for other areas.

The upcoming 2025/2026 rainfall season in Malawi is indeed anticipated to perpetuate a concerning pattern of variability observed in recent years, though with a crucial distinction for the coming period: the forecast leaning towards overall normal to above-normal precipitation presents a significant window of opportunity. This more favourable outlook is an advantage, prompting an urgent call to implement robust proactive measures aimed at maximizing the benefits of this vital water resource, such as enhanced water harvesting initiatives, strategic reservoir management for energy generation and irrigation, and the promotion of climate-smart agricultural practices.