The downscaling of seasonal forecasts follows the generation of the national forecast, aiming to provide more localized and accurate predictions. DCCMS has been downscaling seasonal forecasts to the Traditional Authority (TA) level for more than five years. These downscaled forecasts are crucial for disaster preparedness as they capture local weather patterns, particularly those influenced by topography.

The outputs of the session will include ensemble forecasts for rainfall and temperature for each district in Malawi at the TA level. This work is supported financially by the Resilience and Preparedness to Tropical Cyclones across Southern Africa (REPRESA) project, an international collaborative effort involving partners from Southern Africa, the UK, and other European countries. REPRESA is co-led by the Global Change Institute at the University of the Witwatersrand (WITS) in South Africa, Eduardo Mondlane University (UEM) in Mozambique, and the University of Bristol (UoB) in the UK.

The research process seeks to co-develop and strengthen anticipatory governance structures for flood and tropical cyclone risk management in local communities in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique. This includes improving early warning dissemination and developing scenario-based, community-specific action plans