Summary

• The 2023/2024 rainfall season is expected to be influenced by El Niño conditions, which is the unusual warming of waters in the Eastern-Central Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) using all possible phenomena that drive rainfall in Malawi has come up with the forecast for 2022/2024 rainfall season from October 2023 to April 2024.
• In summary, from October to December 2023, normal total rainfall amounts are expected over most areas of the country.
• However, there is a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall in November, particularly in southern and northern Malawi.
• Planting rains or the onset of the rainy season may be delayed by at least two weeks in some areas.
• From January to March 2024, most areas should anticipate normal to below-normal total rainfall amounts, with the possibility of above-normal rainfall in January.
• There is also a high chance of prolonged dry spells in the month of February.